South African mining company Sibanye-Stillwater believes the global platinum market is heading toward a prolonged structural supply deficit as mine production declines while demand from the automotive industry remains stronger than previously anticipated.
The company says shrinking mine output, limited investment in new projects and a slower-than-expected transition to battery-electric vehicles are combining to tighten global platinum supplies. If current trends continue, supply could struggle to keep pace with demand throughout the next decade.
Mining output is expected to keep falling
Sibanye projects that global mined platinum production will decline from approximately 6.2 million ounces in 2019 to around 4.7 million ounces by 2034.
Speaking during the company's capital markets presentation, Executive Vice President for Sales and Marketing Kleantha Pillay said the industry is entering a period of steadily tightening supply as existing mines mature and fewer new projects move forward.
According to Sibanye, mining companies remain cautious about committing capital to new platinum projects because of uncertainty surrounding long-term demand. At the same time, ageing ore bodies continue to reduce production across several established mining operations.
Automotive demand remains resilient
Platinum is primarily used in catalytic converters for gasoline and diesel vehicles, where it helps reduce harmful emissions.
Although battery-electric vehicles are expected to reduce platinum demand over the long term, Sibanye believes internal combustion engine vehicles will remain on the road for considerably longer than many earlier forecasts suggested.
The company forecasts electric vehicles will account for around 35% of global vehicle sales by 2034, well below earlier projections from the International Energy Agency. That slower transition is expected to support platinum consumption in the automotive sector for longer than previously anticipated.
Fourth consecutive market deficit
Johnson Matthey also expects the platinum market to remain undersupplied.
The company forecasts global mined platinum production of approximately 5.46 million ounces in 2026, down from 5.56 million ounces in 2025. Despite weaker overall demand, Johnson Matthey expects 2026 to mark the fourth consecutive year in which platinum demand exceeds available supply.
The continued deficit suggests that supply constraints have become a structural feature of the platinum market rather than a temporary imbalance.
South Africa remains the key supplier
South Africa accounts for roughly 70% of global platinum mine production, making the country the dominant supplier to world markets.
Any production disruptions, reduced investment or operational challenges affecting South African mines therefore have the potential to influence global platinum availability and prices. The concentration of supply also increases the market's exposure to geopolitical and economic risks.
Recycling cannot offset the declining supply
Recycling of platinum group metals from end-of-life automotive catalytic converters will remain an important secondary source of supply.
Sibanye expects recycled platinum group metals to remain close to five million ounces annually through 2034.
Johnson Matthey anticipates automotive recycling volumes will recover during 2026, but says additional recycled material will not be sufficient to offset declining primary mine production. As a result, structural market deficits are expected to continue.
Investment slowdown raises long-term risks
According to Sibanye, the industry's greatest challenge is the lack of investment in new platinum mines.
Years of uncertainty over future demand have discouraged producers from developing replacement projects, increasing the risk that production from ageing mines cannot be replaced quickly enough.
If investment remains subdued, the platinum market could experience increasingly tight supplies, placing sustained upward pressure on prices while reducing flexibility across global supply chains.
Sources: Sibanye-Stillwater, Johnson Matthey, Reuters, MiningScout.
Fact Check:
Sibanye-Stillwater's long-term production outlook reflects the company's own market assessment rather than an official industry forecast. However, Johnson Matthey's latest Platinum Group Metals Market Report also projects lower mine supply and a fourth consecutive annual platinum market deficit during 2026. Future market conditions will depend on automotive demand, investment in new mining capacity, recycling rates and the pace of global electric vehicle adoption.
